Cherry Flowers started blooming at High Park / ハイ・パークの桜の開花宣言

ハイパークの桜は今満開です、
5月9日の桜の様子です。(Reynolds洋子さん提供)

The cherry flowers at High Park are in full bloom right now.
Below are the pictures on May 9 (Provided by Yoko Reynolds)









Nobby Miura 三浦信義
nobbycosmic@yahoo.co.jp

There are a lots of peaple and a lots of flower.

(English message is after the Japanese message)
皆さーん、

今日5月4日(水)夕方High Parkへ行き、桜の開花を確認しました。坂道の中間あたりの桜の木々はどれも数輪以上の花が白く開花しています。

今年の開花は予想範囲より1日遅れました。[言い訳] 開花予想には温度だけでなく日照率(体感温度を上げる)や風の強さ(体感温度を下げる)も関係します。ボクの数式にはそれらが考慮してありません。温度数値だけだとすでに開花していても、この雨続きの2週間の日照率の少なさが影響したと思います。・・・まあ、いいでしょう。

では、また来年・・・・。
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今年もHigh Parkの桜開花予想の積算気温を計算しています。

今日4月27日に初めて High Parkへ行き、桜の状況を見て来ました。つぼみがかなり膨らんで、つぼみによっては先端が濃いピンクになっています。4月28日ー5月3日の予測範囲内に開花することは間違いないと思います。今後High Parkへ行った人は様子を知らせて下さい。数値は5月1日開花を示唆していますが、そこまでの予想はかなり危険があります。

4月22日の現時点でのHigh Parkの桜の開花予想(非公式。でも誰が公式？)：
現在の展開が続くと開花は4月28日ー5月3日の間。満開はそれから5日から1週間前後。
(4月18日時点の予想よりさらに1日遅れました。長期予報よりも寒い日が続いたせです)

*「開花」とはあらかじめ決めた3本の木のうち2本に5ー6輪咲いた状態。

注)ボクは桜の専門家ではありません。非常に簡単な方法で予想しています。開花予想が外れても責任は負えません。

要請： High Parkへ行った方、桜の状態を教えて下さると助かります。

過去の開花記録：
2007年5月2日(予想範囲内)
2008年4月26日(予想範囲内)
2009年4月27日(予想範囲内より2日遅れ)
2010年4月12日(予想範囲内)
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All,

I went High Park this evening, May 4 (Wed), and confirmed the flowering of the cherry trees. Almost all trees at the middle of the slope had more than a few white flowers.

The flowering was one day later than the range of my prediction. [Excuses] The flowering is affected not only by the temperatures but also by the period of sunshine (that makes you feel warm) and the strength of the wind (that makes you feel cold). My calculation does not take them in to account. Although the calculated number from the temperatures showed that it should have bloomed earlier, the continuous rainy days in the last two weeks obviously affected the flowering. Well, not bad, eh?

So, see you next year ...

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All,

I am again this year calculating the cumulative temperature record for predicting the flowering of the cherry blossoms in the High Park. At this point it is an average trend.

I went High Park today April 27 for the first time to check the condition of the cherry trees. The buds are plump with some of them having dark pink at the tips. It is very likely that they will start flowering within the predicted range of April 28 to May 3. If you go to High Park, please let me know the condition. The number indicates the most likely date of the flowering is on May 1, but it is too risky to fix the date.

This is an unofficial prediction of the flowering of the cherry blossoms in the High Park (Well, who is the official?):

The number on April 22 shows that flowering is expected between April 28 and May 3 if this trend conitnues. The full bloom is normally 5 days to one week after that. (The prediction was shifted one more day later than the prediction made on April 18 because the temperatures in the last few days were colder than the long term forcast)

* The definition of the flowering is that at least 5 to 6 flowers on at least two trees each among the three pre-chosen trees bloom.

Note: I am not an expert on the flowering or the cherry blossoms. I am calculating the figures with very basic pieces of information. I do not take any responsibilities if the prediction was off.

Request: If you go to the High Park, let me know the condition of the cherry flowers. I appreciate.

Past blooming record:
May 2, 2007 (Within the prediction)
April 26, 2008 (Within the prediction)
April 27, 2009 (2 days later than the prediction range)
April 12, 2010 (Within the prediction)
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Nobby Miura 三浦信義
nobbycosmic@yahoo.co.jp