ノビ～の恐れを知らぬHigh Parkの桜開花予想#2 (最終予想）/ Nobby's Fearless Prediction of Cherry Blossoms at High Park #2 (and Final Prediction)

(English version is after the Japanese version)

皆さ～ん、

[] ノビ～の恐れを知らぬHigh Parkの桜開花予想#2 (最終予想）

開花予想日が2週間の長期予報の範囲に入ったので、これが最終予想となります。
開花予想：4月16日+/-2日、満開はそれから1週間後。
【解説】
暖冬のせいで一時はこの18年間で一番早かった2012年の4月5日開花の計算数値を上回っていましたが、
3月後半からの低温続きで、数値の伸びが鈍りました。4月16日あたりで開花数値に到達します。

* High Parkの桜は市内（例えばトロント大学）の桜よりも開花は通常数日遅いです。

*「開花」とはあらかじめ決めた3本の木のうち2本に5ー6輪咲いた状態。
*「満開」とは90%の花が咲いた状態。

注) ボクは桜の専門家ではありません。非常に簡単な方法で予想しています。開花予想が外れても責任は負えません。

Nobby Miura P.Eng., M.Eng.
nobbycosmic@gmail.com

All,

[] Nobby's Fearless Prediction of Cherry Blossoms at High Park #2 (and Final Prediction)

The predicted date of the beginning of the blooming is now within the 14-day long term forecast.  Thus, this prediction is final.The predicted date of the beginning of the blooming: April 16 +/-2, and full bloom will occur one week later. 
[Analysis]
Due to the winter with above normal temperatures, at one point, the figures indicated earlier blooming than April 5 in 2012, which was the earliest ever in the last 18 years.However, the temperatures have been below normal since mid-March.  The increase of the calculated figures slowed and they now indicate the blooming on around April 16.

* The blooming of the cherry blossoms at High Park is normally a few days later than the cherry blossoms in the inner-city such as at the University of Toronto.

* The definition of the blooming is that at least 5 to 6 flowers on at least two trees each among the three pre-chosen trees bloom.* Full bloom means the condition where 90% of the flowers are in full bloom.

Note: I am not an expert on the blooming nor the cherry blossoms. I am calculating the figures with very basic pieces of information. I do not take any responsibility if the prediction was off.

Nobby Miura  P.Eng., M.Eng. 
nobbycosmic@gmail.com