ノビ～の恐れを知らぬHigh Parkの桜開花予想#1 / Nobby's Fearless Prediction of Cherry Blossoms at High Park #1

ノビ～の恐れを知らぬHigh Parkの桜開花予想#1 / Nobby's Fearless Prediction of Cherry Blossoms at High Park #1

[] ノビ～の恐れを知らぬHigh Parkの桜開花予想#1

この数日と今後2週間の長期予報は平年並みの気温なので、今までで一番早かった2012年の4月5日より早くなることはなさそうです。
現在の数値に2週間の長期予報、その後は過去18年間の平均値を使って計算すると開花は4月12日+/-2日、満開はそれから1週間後。
次の開花予想#2は4月上旬発信予定、それが最終予想となります。この予想は下記のトロント日系社会電子掲示板にも掲載して行きます。
http://torontonikkeiforum.2forum.biz/f1-toronto-nikkei-forum
2週間の長期予報の範囲内に開花予想が入った時点で最終開花予想とします。

* High Parkの桜は市内（例えばトロント大学）の桜よりも開花は通常数日遅いです。

*「開花」とはあらかじめ決めた3本の木のうち2本に5ー6輪咲いた状態。
*「満開」とは90%の花が咲いた状態。

注) ボクは桜の専門家ではありません。非常に簡単な方法で予想しています。開花予想が外れても責任は負えません。

Nobby Miura P.Eng., M.Eng.
nobbycosmic@gmail.com

All,

[] Nobby's Fearless Prediction of Cherry Blossoms at High Park #1

The temperatures in the last few days were and the long-term forecast for the next two weeks are near-normal temperatures.
So it is unlikely that the beginning of the blooming will be earlier than April 5 in 2012, which was the earliest ever in the last 18 years.
Using current numbers, the two-week long-term forecast, and then average temperatures in the past 18 years, the figures indicate the blooming will start on April 12 +/-2, and full bloom will occur one week later. 
The next blooming prediction #2 will be released in early April and that will be the final prediction.
I am posting this in the Toronto Nikkei Forum below as well:
http://torontonikkeiforum.2forum.biz/f1-toronto-nikkei-forum.
Once the prediction range is within the 14-day forecast, that prediction is the final.

* The blooming of the cherry blossoms at High Park is normally a few days later than the cherry blossoms in the inner-city such as at the University of Toronto.

* The definition of the blooming is that at least 5 to 6 flowers on at least two trees each among the three pre-chosen trees bloom.* Full bloom means the condition where 90% of the flowers are in full bloom.

Note: I am not an expert on the blooming nor the cherry blossoms. I am calculating the figures with very basic pieces of information. I do not take any responsibility if the prediction was off.

Nobby Miura  P.Eng., M.Eng. nobbycosmic@gmail.com