ノビ～の恐れを知らぬHigh Parkの桜開花予想#1 / Nobby's Fearless Prediction of Cherry Blossoms at High Park #1

皆さ～ん、

[] ノビ～の恐れを知らぬHigh Parkの桜開花予想#1

今年もHigh Parkの桜開花予想の時期となりました。予想#1です。

現在の数値に2週間の長期予報、その後は過去17年間の平年値を使って計算すると開花は4月26日+/-2日、満開はそれから1週間後となります。ただし1カ月以上先のことでまだ不確定要素が沢山あります。今後の予想に注意していて下さい。この予想は下記のトロント日系社会電子掲示板にも掲載して行きます。
http://torontonikkeiforum.2forum.biz/f1-toronto-nikkei-forum
2週間の長期予報の範囲内に開花予想が入った時点で最終開花予想とします。


* High Parkの桜は市内（例えばトロント大学）の桜よりも開花は通常数日遅いです。


*「開花」とはあらかじめ決めた3本の木のうち2本に5ー6輪咲いた状態。
*「満開」とは90%の花が咲いた状態。

注) ボクは桜の専門家ではありません。非常に簡単な方法で予想しています。開花予想が外れても責任は負えません。

Nobby Miura P.Eng., M.Eng.
nobbycosmic@gmail.com

All,

[] Nobby's Fearless Prediction of Cherry Blossoms at High Park #1

It is time again for predicting the blooming of the cherry trees in the High Park.  This is the first "official" prediction.
Based on the calculated figures at this point, plus using the 14-day forecast and the average daily temperatures of the past 17years, the blooming is to begin on April 26 +/- 2 days, and the full bloom  is 1 week after that.  Since it is still more than one month away, there are a lot of uncertain factors exist. I am posting this in the Toronto Nikkei Forum below as well:
http://torontonikkeiforum.2forum.biz/f1-toronto-nikkei-forum.
Once the prediction range is within the 14-day forecast, that prediction is the final.


* The blooming of the cherry blossoms at High Park is normally a few days later than the cherry blossoms in the inner-city such as at the University of Toronto.


* The definition of the blooming is that at least 5 to 6 flowers on at least two trees each among the three pre-chosen trees bloom.* Full bloom means the condition where 90% of the flowers are in full bloom.

Note: I am not an expert on the blooming nor the cherry blossoms. I am calculating the figures with very basic pieces of information. I do not take any responsibility if the prediction was off.

Nobby Miura P.Eng., M.Eng.
nobbycosmic@gmail.com