ノビ～の恐れを知らぬHigh Parkの桜開花予想(概略) / Nobby's Fearless Prediction of Cherry Blossoms at High Park (Preview)

(The English version is after the Japanese version)
皆さ～ん、

[] ノビ～の恐れを知らぬHigh Parkの桜開花予想(概略)

今年もHigh Parkの桜開花予想の時期となりました。まだ3月初旬なので今回は概略です。

現在の数値に2週間の長期予報、その後は過去18年間の平年値を使って計算すると4月中旬に開花、満開は4月下旬となります。ただし現在の時点の計算値は過去18年間での最高値を示しており、2012年の4月5日開花より高い数値になっています。今後もこの異常暖冬が続くと今までで一番早い開花になる可能性があります。1ヵ月先のことでまだ不確定要素が沢山あります。今後の予想に注意していて下さい。
この予想は下記のトロント日系社会電子掲示板にも掲載して行きます。
http://torontonikkeiforum.2forum.biz/f1-toronto-nikkei-forum
2週間の長期予報の範囲内に開花予想が入った時点で最終開花予想とします。


* High Parkの桜は市内（例えばトロント大学）の桜よりも開花は通常数日遅いです。


*「開花」とはあらかじめ決めた3本の木のうち2本に5ー6輪咲いた状態。
*「満開」とは90%の花が咲いた状態。

注) ボクは桜の専門家ではありません。非常に簡単な方法で予想しています。開花予想が外れても責任は負えません。

Nobby Miura P.Eng., M.Eng.
nobbycosmic@gmail.com

All,

[] Nobby's Fearless Prediction of Cherry Blossoms at High Park (Preview)

It is time again for predicting the blooming of the cherry trees in the High Park.
It is still early March, so it is a rough preview.

Based on the calculated figures at this point, using the 14-day forecast and the average daily temperatures of the past 18 years, the blooming is to begin in mid-April and the full bloom before the end of April.  However, at this point, the calculated figures are showing the highest figures in the past 18 years, even higher than the earliest start of blooming in the past on April 5, 2012.  Thus if this trend of the unusually warm winter continues, there is a possibility of the earliest start of blooming in the past 18 years.
It is still one month away and there are a lot of uncertain factors. 
I am posting this in the Toronto Nikkei Forum below as well:
http://torontonikkeiforum.2forum.biz/f1-toronto-nikkei-forum.
Once the prediction range is within the 14-day forecast, that prediction is the final.


* The blooming of the cherry blossoms at High Park is normally a few days later than the cherry blossoms in the inner-city such as at the University of Toronto.


* The definition of the blooming is that at least 5 to 6 flowers on at least two trees each among the three pre-chosen trees bloom.* Full bloom means the condition where 90% of the flowers are in full bloom.

Note: I am not an expert on the blooming nor the cherry blossoms. I am calculating the figures with very basic pieces of information. I do not take any responsibility if the prediction was off.

Nobby Miura  P.Eng., M.Eng. 
nobbycosmic@gmail.com