【開花宣言】のび～の恐れを知らぬHigh Parkの桜開花予想 / [Now Blooming] Nobby's Fearless Prediction of Cherry Blossoms at High Park

(English version is after the Japanese version)

皆さん、

[] 【開花宣言：4月17日】のび～の恐れを知らぬHigh Parkの桜開花予想

High Parkの坂道の桜並木の開花を宣言します。4月17日。
今朝、High Parkの大池に沿った坂道の桜並木の多くの木々に数輪以上の開花が認められました。
昨日16日は1輪見つけるのがやっとでした。最終開花予想範囲より２日早いです。
但し奥まった、坂から離れたsports field脇の桜は2-3分咲きです。
今日の数値に今週の長期予報の数値を使って再計算すると坂道の桜並木満開は4月26日+/-2日とでます。

【解析】
先週の異常気温の為に市内の桜の開花に大きなばらつきが見られます。
例えば通常は開花がHigh Parkより数日早いだけのトロント大学の桜は昨日16日に既に満開でした。

まだ冬の水温のオンタリオ湖の冷却効果の為に昨日16日のHigh Parkの大池の脇は気温16℃。
一方異常気温のままの市内のトロント大学は23℃。
この7℃もの気温差が3-4日も続いた影響は大きいです。
ここに開花予想の難しさがあります。



*「開花」とはあらかじめ決めた3本の木のうち2本に5ー6輪咲いた状態。
*「満開」とは90%の花が咲いた状態。

Nobby Miura  P.Eng., M.Eng.
nobbycosmic@gmail.com

All,

[] [Now Blooming : April 17] Nobby's Fearless Prediction of Cherry Blossoms at High Park

I declare the blooming of the cherry trees on the slope of High Park has started. April 17th.
This morning, more than a few flowers were seen blooming on many of the cherry trees along the slope near the big pond in High Park.
Yesterday, on the 16th, I could find only one flower blooming.
This is two days earlier than the final blooming prediction.
By the way, the cherry trees next to the sports field away from the slope are 20-30% in bloom.
Recalculating using today's figure plus this week's long-term forecast, the cherry trees on the slope will be in full bloom on April 26 +/- 2 days.

【Analysis】
Due to the above normal temperatures last week, there was a large variation in cherry tree blooming in the city.
For example, the University of Toronto cherry trees, which usually bloom only a few days earlier than High Park, were already in full bloom yesterday, the 16th.

Due to the cooling effect of Lake Ontario, which is still winter water temperatures, High Park beside the big pond yesterday was 16C.
On the other hand, the University of Toronto in the city away from the lake was above normal 23C. 
This 7°C temperature difference lasting for 3-4 days had significant impacts on the trees and flowers.
Here lies the difficulty in forecasting blooming.



* The definition of the blooming is that at least 5 to 6 flowers on at least two trees each among the three pre-chosen trees bloom.
* Full bloom means the condition where 90% of the flowers are in full bloom.

Nobby Miura, P.Eng., M.Eng.
nobbycosmic@gmail.com